Finance Minister Hassan Zareer has indicated that tourist arrivals to the Maldives this year are unlikely to match the total recorded in 2025.
Speaking while presenting the budget, he noted that initial targets of 2.4 million arrivals will not be met. The government now estimates 2.17 million visitors by year-end, compared with 2.25 million last year.
Year-to-date figures show a decline of several percentage points relative to the same period in 2025. The slowdown is attributed primarily to disruptions from the Middle East conflict, which affected key transit routes and European markets.
Tourism Goods and Services Tax collections have already reflected the lower arrivals. The sector remains the primary driver of economic activity, and any sustained shortfall has direct implications for revenue and growth projections.
The government expects a recovery in 2027, with arrivals projected between 2.28 million and 2.5 million under intensified promotional efforts.
